How to take down an entrenched power structure
The Suozzi team realized early on that while its message may, on paper, test better than DiNapoli's, the distinctions it drew between the candidates would likely blur in a real campaign environment.
SINCE IT WAS INCORPORATED in 1899, Nassau County, New York, boasted one of the most enduring and effective political machines in the history of American politics. Nassau Republicans held control of the county legislature for one hundred years (1899-1999). During that time, the county tolerated only two Democratic terms as County Executive and none since 1971.
All that came to a crashing, unambiguous end last November. What is more, after a century of mostly pointless Democratic primary contests to nominate the Republican machine's next victim, the general election proved a one-sided affair. Voters made their real decision about the County's future in the September Democratic primary.
But that primary contest, too, shocked an altogether different establishment. In 2001, Tom Suozzi first upset the Democratic Party's endorsed candidate Assemblyman Tom DiNapoli in the Democratic primary and then overthrew a century-old Republican oligarchy, all without really airing a single negative ad or mailing a single negative mail piece.
In so doing, the Suozzi campaign consistently defied conventional wisdom to reach the winner's circle.
The Backdrop
Nassau is one of two counties that make up suburban Long Island and sits 30 miles from midtown Manhattan. It is the country's "first" suburb and rated one of the best places to live in the country due to its high-quality schools, low crime rate, waterfront and proximity to New York City. It is also the fourth richest county in the country. Any municipality has unique challenges in terms of governance, but Nassau had and has many key assets as well.
Nonetheless, old clich�s about absolutes and power hold true here as elsewhere. A century of essentially one-party rule, with its absence of competition and accountability, had rendered county government nearly insolvent. The county ran up a $2 billion debt, while charging local taxpayers some of the highest taxes in the country. Patronage so clogged the basics of government that 382,000 traffic tickets (worth up to $10 million) were unpaid. At the same time, county government paid for two full-time photographers to follow the county executive to every function. Scandal after scandal undermined voter confidence in the once invincible GOP machine.
Shortly before the county elections in 1999, a $200 million deficit and tax hike were made public. Democratic Chairman Tom DiNapoli converted this opportunity and delivered a Democratic majority in the legislature for the first time in a century. A real two-party system was reborn that day.
Unfortunately both for voters here and, ultimately, the Republican organization, the next two years were no kinder, fiscally, to Nassau County. Indeed, the crushing burden of debt, patronage, corruption and deficit spending forced one of the richest counties in the country to go hat in hand to the state government in Albany for a bailout. The Bunkers of Queens helped bail out the Gatsbys of Nassau, to the (doubtless) chagrin in the former and the embarrassment of the latter. Significantly, however, Assemblyman DiNapoli orchestrated the rescue and, arguably, saved Nassau.
Three Toms
Tom I is Tom Gulotta, the 14-year Republican incumbent county executive. Although a product of the machine, Gulotta also possessed considerable political charm, talent and drive; enough, some said early in his career, to follow Al D'Amato (also a product of this machine) into statewide office.
But for voters, after 14 years, the status quo in Nassau had a face and a name: Tom Gulotta. As early as 1999, his own County Chairman began a campaign to replace him as the GOP nominee. Gulotta eventually saw his own political obituary. He withdrew in March, 2001, despite a $2 million campaign war chest. It was so bad that one headline read "Decision a Boost for GOP."
While he was not a candidate in the race, Gulotta was certainly the denning political presence in the campaign. Every candidate ultimately campaigned "against" him. As candidate Tom DiNapoli said the day of the incumbent's withdrawal, "The county executive's race is going to be a referendum on 30 years of Republican domination." Rival Democrat Tom Suozzi agreed, "Tom Gulotta is only the face of the problem."
Tom II is the Democratic Assemblyman Tom DiNapoli. Like the other Toms in this tale, he was politically precocious, winning his first office (school board) at the age of 18. He went on to become the Democratic Chairman whose efforts helped destroy the Republican hegemony in Nassau County and the Assemblyman who sponsored Nassau's fiscal rescue plan.
Needless to say, these two accomplishments positioned him well. But most important, he secured the backing-and official convention endorsement - of the Nassau Democratic party, as well as a slew of prominent New York Democrats (Speaker Sheldon Silver, Chuck Schumer, Carolyn McCarthy and Hillary Clinton appeared with him as well).
Tom III is Democrat Tom Suozzi. In 1993, he was elected Mayor of the City of Glen Cove at 31. As incoming mayor he faced many of the same problems in 1993 that confronted the county executive candidates in 2001: debt, corruption, incompetence, patronage. Although he had to raise taxes in his first year, he balanced eight city budgets in a row, paid off the city's debt, attracted investments and revitalized the waterfront.
This record would become the linchpin of the Suozzi campaign.
Creating a Strategy
In preparation for the benchmark Democratic primary survey, Rachael Gorlin and Martin Hamburger, principals at the Laguens, Hamburger and Stone media firm, prepared the following message box for the Suozzi team:
Message Box
Suozzi on Suozzi
* Outsider/Shakes up the System/Agent of change
* Spearheaded Glen Cove's comeback, will spearhead Nassau County's
* Hands-on executive experience/Tough and Innovative
* Has the best plan for getting Nassau back on track
Suozzi on DiNapoli
* Insider/status quo/machine politician
* Ineffectual/Not tough enough to turn Nassau around
* No experience actually running anything
* Has put politics above people on key issues
DiNapoli on Suozzi
* Brash/arrogant
* Small time/no experience outside Glen Cove
* Doesn't share our progressive values
* No chance to win
DiNapoli on DiNapoli
* Consensus builder
* Party Democrat/is "entitled" to county executive nomination
* Honest/thoughtful
* Albany powerhouse/Long Island leader
In mid-April, before the Democratic convention, Cooper & Secrest Associates interviewed 606 likely Democratic primary voters to help identify and flesh out the details of the Suozzi message, tactics and political strategy. The poll showed an 8-point trial heat lead for DiNapoli (32 percent to 24 percent), based on a 15-point advantage in name recognition. But, as is almost always the case in early polling, the more pivotal findings were projective in nature. Three key stratagems emerged from this research:
1. It's about change. A 63 percent majority of Democratic primary voters believed Nassau County was heading off on the wrong track. A 75 percent majoritycriticized the job performance of the Nassau County government. Eighty-nine percent (89 percent) of voters described the county as facing a "major problem" on its budget and 106 percent of voters in a multiple response question identified corruption and waste in government as primarily to blame for Nassau's fiscal woes. The challenge of the primary and the general election was not finding a message. A message of "change" was not only obvious, it was unavoidable.
The challenge, then, was being viewed as the most credible advocate of change and that, too, was obvious. In August, Newsday provided space for both Democratic primary candidates to write editorials promoting their candidacy. Consider the following excerpts:
"The buzzword this election season is 'change.' But real change needs to be more than the same old wine in a new bottle. Nassau County deserves more than press releases posing as comprehensive plans. We need a leader whose ideas and experience reflect the size and scope of the problems our county faces."
-Tom DiNapoli
"Every candidate in this race will use the same adjectives to describe himself. We all will say that we'll be tough, that we'll be fair, that we'll be responsible. We all say that we need to change the way the County does business. I am the only candidate that can say I can do it because I have done it. "
-Tom Suozzi
Both campaigns effectively telegraphed their message. The battle lines were drawn. DiNapoli would draw on his experience, leadership and (ultimately) the party's imprimatur to make himself the change candidate in a Democratic primary. Suozzi would tell the Glen Cove story. He was elected as Mayor of a city that faced the same problems as Nassau County and he turned things around. The polling suggested that while DiNapoli's "experience" in no way disqualified him from being a change candidate, Suozzi's was the more credible message.
2. Speak no evil. New York being New York, and given the history of Democratic primaries here, most expected smashmouth politics from wire to wire. Naturally, both sides prepared for a street fight. But with the exception of some barbed comments in the press, neither Democratic primary candidate launched a full-blown negative attack on the other. The general election, too, would proceed with few negatives, especially tame by New York standards.
While we can't speak for the strategy of the DiNapoli campaign, the Suozzi campaign kept the plug in the powder horn for one simple reason: it would not have worked otherwise. The benchmark poll, as well as subsequent tracks, tested scores of arguments against both candidates, arguments which should have worked, particularly against candidates who, at the time of the survey, remained unknown to many primary voters.
Almost nothing popped.
Democratic primary voters were clearly hungry for a win in November and unwilling to allow the candidates to carve each other up.
3. Bigger is better. The Suozzi team realized early on that while its message may, on paper, test better than DiNapoli's, the distinctions it drew between the candidates would likely blur in a real campaign environment. Given DiNapoli's long list of endorsements from the Party, labor and a raft of local and state politicians, the Suozzi campaign believed that DiNapoli could easily be the default candidate in a lowturnout primary composed disproportionately of activists. Therefore, it invested significant resources in efforts to "grow" the electorate by turning out non-traditional Democratic primary voters.
The Suozzi campaign instituted a phone identification program which called every registered Democrat in the county, regardless of vote history. Those who identified themselves as either supporting or leaning Suozzi were added to the mail and field universe. Ultimately, a turnout model was developed that pegged participation at 65,000 voters or 25,000 voters (!) higher than a more traditional model based on voter history would have suggested. The Suozzi team targeted 40,000 non-traditional primary voters, and took its field component very seriously. Ultimately, turnout reached over 68,000 voters, literally twice the turnout of the 1993 contested primary.
Execution
The Suozzi team included Kirn Devlin as campaign manager, a Texan who most recently had helped successfully defend U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore's seat in Kansas, and Jay Jacobs, an experienced local activist who served as campaign chairman. Gil Gallego, Dan Deegan, Joseph Suozzi and Matt Cuomo staffed a seasoned, indispensable kitchen cabinet with irreplaceable institutional memory of Nassau County politics. Mark Sump and Tom Lindenfield coordinated field efforts, with Field Director Jeff Stein, while Ed Peavy and Kevin Kolber of Mission Control developed the campaign mail, Rachael Gorlin of the media firm Laguens, Hamburger & Stone wrote and produced radio and television ads and Cooper & Secrest provided the polling.
But the most important member of this team by far was candidate Tom Suozzi, who in addition to staying focused and disciplined throughout the campaign, helped raise $3.7 million dollars for this race, outspending both the Democratic party endorsed candidate and the Republican nominee, millionaire Bruce Bent. Telegenic, articulate, and passionately committed to this race in the face of countless local establishment doubters, Suozzi would not take "no" for an answer from prospective givers, prospective endorsers, press and others, and was invariably still setting the pace for the team well into the night. These personal strengths complemented the Glen Cove story, which needed no embellishment.
With the poll analysis as guide, Laguens, Hamburger and Stone and Mission Control developed their respective media plans, the primary goals of which were: (1) to tell voters the Glen Cove story and draw the obvious parallel between the problems the city faced 10 years ago (now solved) and the problems Nassau County faces today, and, (2) to provide voters with enough key proposals for turning Nassau around to make the transition from a mayor of a small city to an executive managing a $2.2 billion budget, larger than the budget of 16 states.
Broadcast television is simply out of reach for most candidates in this market. Rachael Gorlin outlined an electronic outreach program that relied largely on cable television, beginning in week five, supplemented with radio. She titled one of the most compelling ads "Coffee Table," which told the story of a failed Republican effort in pre-Suozzi Glen Cove to build a new police-court complex for the city. Although the incumbents never completed the building, they did manage to finish a bronze plaque with their names enshrined for all eternity.
Once elected, Suozzi sold the lot, negotiated the donation of two buildings and completed the complex on time and onbudget. He then converted the self-congratulatory plaque into a coffee table for his office.
What made this spot work was the way it tapped voters' anger about the malfeasance of local government, but also demonstrated in a light-hearted way what a difference real leadership could make and, more than anything, brought to life the vivid personality of the candidate.
One other dynamic of this outreach proved decisive in the Democratic primary.
Suozzi's prodigious fundraising and, arguably, the DiNapoli campaign's overconfidence, afforded the Suozzi campaign a two-and-a-half-week lead on television. This allowed the Suozzi campaign to stay competitive at a time when DiNapoli received almost every high-profile Democratic endorsement available (Chuck Schumer, Carolyn McCarthy, most local unions, etc.).
While the tracking polls suggested the Suozzi media buy enjoyed unusually high traction for cable, campaign mail provided the primary vehicle of communications. Mission Control developed a 14-piece mail plan that sought to reinforce the basic Suozzi message of credible change: I can do it (change Nassau) because I've done it (in Glen Cove). Moreover, the mail team also worked to expand the likely electorate by mailing non-prime voters. Indeed, the Suozzi mailing universe exceeded the DiNapoli mailing universe by 20,000 names.
One emblematic piece was called Stopwatch. Set against a picture of a stopwatch, the piece read, "Within half an hour of taking office, Mayor Tom Suozzi was reversing patronage pay hikes. He's not known for his patience."
Timing is Everything
Cooper & secrest executed a program of five tracking polls after the April benchmark Democratic primary survey. This research focused not only on the overall results, but on the trial heat preferences among those voters who believed things in Nassau County were headed off on the wrong track. Again, the key to this election was "change" and the candidate who defined change would likely win. We believed that our trial heat support among "wrong track" voters best measured this dynamic.
By August, Suozzi had pulled even with DiNapoli overall and led among "wrong track" voters. Then, endorsement after endorsement landed on DiNapoli and he opened up an 8-point lead a week out.
Despite this deficit, however, the Suozzi campaign resisted the temptation to launch negatives. The survey also demonstrated that Democratic primary voters loved both candidates. DiNapoli enjoyed a 73 percent positive personal appeal score. Seventy-four percent (74 percent) reacted favorably toward Tom Suozzi. The polling suggested the Suozzi message would still work. What voters needed were "referees," neutral parties to allow them to discern between two candidates who spoke in similar terms about the need to change Nassau.
Three last-minute endorsements, from Newsday (the local paper in Long Island), the New York Times and, perhaps most important, from former Gov. Mario Cuomo arrived at a critical juncture. Importantly, these three endorsements were tested in Suozzi campaign's benchmark survey and had the highest credibility with Democratic primary voters.
The stage was set for a very competitive election day - on Sept. 11.
What Matters Most
What happened on Sept. 11 reminded all of us that there are many things in life more important than tracking polls, phone programs and television spots. But New York candidates also faced an election reset just two weeks after the tragedy (Sept. 25) and had to come to grips with how to respond. The point was not just avoiding seeming insensitive at this time, but staying focused at a time of very real, personal pain for many of us. Some on the Suozzi team, like every other campaign in the region, lost friends that day. Candidates returned; from funerals to attend conference calls. Nothing in the Suozzi campaign sparked more sober, anguished, passionate and sensitive consideration and debate.
In the end, the Suozzi campaign was the first in the region to resume activity. In the final five days, the Suozzi campaign aired a spot featuring ex-Gov. Cuomo. While this spot avoided any direct reference to Sept. 11, it stressed contextually relevant language like "executive leadership" and closed with the line, "your vote has never been more important." It also featured the Newsday and New York Times endorsements.
The spot apparently struck the perfect note. It refocused voters - to the degree possible - on the fact that life will go on, that while the nation and region certainly had bigger problems, Nassau still needed to pull itself up by the bootstraps.
And because Cuomo is, well, Cuomo, and this was a Democratic primary, it reminded them also that elections were not necessarily crass and pedestrian affairs, but a potential source of inspiration. And that sometimes elected officials play a critical role in a time of crisis.
The DiNapoli campaign relied more on their presumed strength in the field and a light radio buy to finish out the election.
Ultimately, Suozzi won with 54 percent of the vote. Turnout reached 68,000 voters, compared to 34,000 in the last hotly contested Democratic primary (1993). Turnout peaked in Suozzi's home area. The long, tedious hours spent expanding the electorate clearly made a difference in the outcome - an upset.
General Election
The general election was never close. Suozzi began the campaign with a 40-point lead and never lost it. The Republican machine, having all but ex-communicated their incumbent, largely turned its back on the replacement nominee, Bruce Bent, as well. Bent might have had a compelling story - he all but invented the mutual fund market - and had the personal wealth to tell it. But he was a political naif who, literally, had to ask his wife how to kiss a baby ("on the feet") before hitting the campaign trail.
The Republican campaign reached the level of parody when it aired a commercial attacking Democrat Suozzi for being overly supportive of the Republican incumbent county executive! But Republican pols concentrated instead - probably wisely and certainly successfully - on holding turnover in the county legislature to a minimum. In that campaign they succeeded. But they lost the county executive race 67 percent to 31 percent.
Lessons
So what lessons can we draw from the Suozzi upsets?
1. Lord Acton's quote about "absolute power" has rarely rung more true. In truth, Suozzi's general election landslide was years in the making and reflected generations of a lack of party competition and the inevitable corruption, hubris and incompetence which result from same.
2. Be prepared to defy the conventional wisdom. Time after time, the Suozzi campaign was told it had no chance, that the convention endorsement sealed its fate. It responded by raising more money and sharpening its message. It was told it could not win without negatives; yet, it kept its powder dry. The Suozzi team was told it could not expand a Democratic primary electorate; yet, turnout nearly doubled expectations. The Suozzi team was told it was fatal to campaign actively after Sept. 11; yet, it ran a spot which united Democrats and quieted critics.
3. Even well-run campaigns need a little help from "friends. "Voters in competitive primaries involving two popular (or, sometimes, two unpopular) candidates often need an arbitrator. But the key is both timing - Suozzi's endorsements came at precisely the right moment in the campaign - and make sure the endorsements stay on message.
4. In nine elections out often, the most disciplined campaign will win.
The Suozzi campaign told the Glen Cove story over and over and over. The DiNapoli campaign began, at least, with some ideologically generic pieces about HMOs, choice and gun control that might energize Democrats, but have little to do with municipal government.
5. Sometimes the messenger matters as much as the message. In Tom Suozzi, voters saw a young, vibrant, aggressive candidate, precisely the kind of leader Nassau sought.
www.campaignline.com
[Sidebar]
IN THE FINAL FIVE DAYS, THE SUOZZI CAMPAIGN AIRED A SPOT FEATURING Ex-Gov. CUOMO. WHILE THIS SPOT AVOIDED ANY DIRECT REFERENCE TO SEPT. II, IT STRESSED CONTEXTUALLY RELEVANT LANGUAGE LIKE "EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP" AND CLOSED WITH THE LINE, "YOUR VOTE HAS NEVER BEEN MOREIMPORTANT."
[Author Affiliation]
David Walker and Alan secrest are Democratic pollsters with the Alexandria, VAbased firm Cooper & Secrest Associates.
